[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141218
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA CROSSING THE COAST
OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC TO
04N18W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 04N18W TO 04N35W THEN TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER NEAR
02N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO
24N90W WHERE IT STARTS TO BECOME DIFFUSE TO 23N95W THEN SOUTH TO
18N94W. ZONAL WINDS ALOFT ARE LIMITING THE STRENGTH AND
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...AND IT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT IS MODIFYING RAPIDLY OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MAINLY THE NW GULF.
OBSERVATIONS FROM CMAN SITES OFF VERACRUZ INDICATE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT HAD BEEN FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO W OF THE FRONT HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA WEAKENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...SLOWING SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THIS WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED.
ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
AND SE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO THE NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS. TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE ALSO IS SUPPORTING FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH PUERTO RICO. FARTHER TO THE
EAST...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. SATELLITE DATA
ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS AS WELL AS BUOY SITES FARTHER EAST INDICATE FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INTERACT
WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW LIGHT AND FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN EXPOSURES AS WELL. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT...ALLOWING MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING STALLED FRONT REACHES FROM 31N76W TO NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH FLORIDA. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
ACROSS THE REGION IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29.5N79W OVER THE RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE GULF STREAM CURRENT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TCI THIS MORNING WILL INTERACT WITH TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION S OF 22N W OF 65W THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A
BROAD 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N38W IS SUPPORTING
PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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