[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA CROSSING THE COAST
OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLC TO
04N19W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 04N19W TO 04N40W TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER NEAR
01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N
BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 24N90W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO 24N95W...THEN
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 18N93W. ZONAL WINDS ALOFT ARE LIMITING THE
STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT IS MODIFYING
RAPIDLY OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM COASTAL SITES AND OFFSHORE PLATFORMS INDICATE WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY THE NW GULF. AN EARLIER ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN
FUNNELING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO
VERACRUZ...SUPPORTED BY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS. CMAN
SITE AT VERACRUZ AND NEARBY ISLA DE SACRIFICIO INDICATE STRONG
WINDS PERSISTING CURRENTLY WITH PEAK WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
MID/UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ARIZONA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...WEAKENING THE SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND PROVIDE A WEAK EASTWARD PUSH
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA
TO COSTA RICA...SLOWING SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT HAS
SINCE DIMINISHED. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FLOW
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN SUPPORTING AREAS
OF SHOWERS FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO THE NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS.
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALSO IS SUPPORTING FAST MOVING SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH PUERTO RICO. FARTHER
TO THE EAST...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS BUOY SITES FARTHER EAST INDICATE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INTERACT
WITH DAYTIME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW LIGHT AND FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN EXPOSURES AS WELL. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT...ALLOWING MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 02 UTC INDICATED A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 31N77W...WITH FRESH STRONG N TO NE WINDS
BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTLINE. A
WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM THIS CIRCULATION TO E CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. THE FRONT IS DERIVING SUPPORT FROM
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
REGION...ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE FRONT N OF 29N AND TO THE WEST OF ABACO ISLAND BAHAMAS. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TCI THIS MORNING WILL INTERACT WITH TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION S OF 22N W OF 65W THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A
BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N40W EXTENDS SW
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING PERSISTENT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 22N. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE
MOVING E. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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