[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
04N09W TO 04N15W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES
TO 05N20W TO 03N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W TO
24N94W TO 24N89W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND
EXTENDS TO 27N86W TO 28N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
23N98W TO 30N83W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXCEPT W OF 96W BETWEEN 22N-26N WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SE OF THE FRONTS. MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES BEING ADVECTED FROM EPAC
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
FRONTS TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 79W. THIS FEATURE PAIRED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER E
CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG 79W MAINLY S OF 19N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 78W
WHERE WEAKER NE WINDS ARE NOTICED. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED
BY THE TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA AS OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE CONTINUES
PRODUCING WEAK FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN A DRY AIRMASS STARTS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND INHIBITING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF WATERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 31N78W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO 24N79W ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THIS
AXIS AND BETWEEN 70W-80W. TO THE E...A BROAD 1032 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N30W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH BENIGN WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N13W IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N16W TO 14N14W.
LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E. THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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