[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GUINEA AND THEN
INTO THE ATLC NEAR 04N09W TO 04N12W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO
THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N29W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N
BETWEEN 16W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC WATERS INTO THE GULF. WITH THIS...OVERCAST SKIES AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ANALYZED AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 19N94W...THROUGH A 1017 MB LOW
NEAR 23N95W...THEN TO 23N88W. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS TO 24N81W THEN INTO
THE W ATLANTIC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHILE A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS
NOTICED S OF THE BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA WHILE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE DEPICTED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR STABLE CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
24N80W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 33N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
FROM 23N75W TO 31N70W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THIS TROUGH MAINLY
N OF 23N BETWEEN 63W-71W. TO THE E...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N37W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING AND FOR THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT NE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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