[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 1N
ALONG 3N6W TO 5N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N14W 4N25W 5N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS SUPPORTING POCKETS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. WEAK TROUGHING...THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT DISSIPATED EARLIER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTS ACROSS THE
NE GULF AND OVER THE FAR SW GULF. MEANWHILE A NEW COLD FRONT HAS
PENETRATED INTO THE NW GULF...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE. PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF ALONG WITH
OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INDICATE
OVERRUNNING OF MOIST AIR ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
GULF...AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REPORTED INLAND OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH LATE
TODAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SHIFT EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE TODAY. MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. TRADE WIND
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS STRONG
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EAST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TRADE
WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG HOWEVER ACROSS THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
PUERTO RICO ON REGIONAL RADAR...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON SATELLITE
AND TRINIDAD/TOBAGO RADAR. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE ENHANCED TRADE WIND
FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
DIMINISH.

...HISPANIOLA...
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE TO DELIVER WEAK FAST
MOVING SHOWERS TO EASTERN EXPOSURES AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
DIMINISHES THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED FORCING ALOFT INTERACTING WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVER THE GULF STREAM IS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...REACHING SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W TO INLAND OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO
SENEGAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 39N47W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN S OF 24N. THE ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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