[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 1N
ALONG 3N6W TO 5N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N14W 4N25W 5N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA CITY
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SEPARATING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER S MEXICO TO OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THAT
EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW INLAND
OVER S ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 25N94W 22N95W
TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO
THE GULF NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N94W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA AND INTO
THE W ATLC. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE W GULF W OF THE
REMNANT BOUNDARY TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TONIGHT. THE COMBINED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY. ANOTHER REINFORCING AND STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 17N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-86W INCLUDING THE W TIP OF
JAMAICA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
THE W ATLC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY TUE NIGHT
WEAKENING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N79W TO INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA ALONG 26N76W THEN BEYOND
32N70W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM NEAR
WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ALONG 30N78W TO BEYOND 32N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA W OF 76W FROM OVER CUBA TO BEYOND 32N. AN UPPER LOW IS
IN THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W TO INLAND OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR
23N16W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A 1038 MB HIGH MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E BY TUE NIGHT. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW WATERS TONIGHT...SLOWLY
SHIFTING E AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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