[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GUINEA FROM 03N10E
TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 04N TO 02N10W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM
02N10W TO 03N40W TO THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER NEAR 00N50W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MIDDLE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO WESTERN CUBA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN ACTIVE A FEW HOURS AGO TO DIMINISH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO. PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF
ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL SITES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
INDICATE OVERRUNNING OF MOIST AIR ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NW GULF...AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REPORTED INLAND OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
UPSTREAM OVER WEST TEXAS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH LATE
TODAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SHIFT EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE TODAY. MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED EAST. TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG HOWEVER ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
W OF 55W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON REGIONAL
RADAR...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON SATELLITE AND TRINIDAD/TOBAGO
RADAR. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE
TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH.

...HISPANIOLA...
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE TO DELIVER WEAK FAST
MOVING SHOWERS TO EASTERN EXPOSURES AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
DIMINISHES THE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA IS INTERACTING WITH WARM AND MOIST
AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM...RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 31N75W TO THE
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY. AN UPPER
LOW IS IN THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY  ISLANDS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 28N15W TO INLAND OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO SENEGAL. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1039
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 39N47W. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLC BASIN S OF 24N. THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW WATERS
TONIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING E AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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