[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
9 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM 10.5N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE GOING TO LESS THAN GALE-
FORCE...AND THEN RETURN TO GALE-FORCE ANOTHER 12 HOURS
LATER...AT THE 24-HOUR TIME DURING THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 1N TO 4N13W
1N27W 3N36W AND 3N43W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT TO THE
WEST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 4N10W 5N16W 4N26W 5N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO 19N99W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1019 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 28N96W. ONE PART OF A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM THE 1019
MB LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER
PART OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1019 MB LOW CENTER
TO 23N95W...AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 27N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND
94W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 90W EASTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM 14N100W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH
18N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN WITHIN WITHIN 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N78W IN CUBA BEYOND 28N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO
THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL ICAO PLATFORM
SITES...EXCEPT FOR THE FOLLOWING SITES...KHHV...KEHC...KEIR...
KSPR...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN IS
BEING OBSERVED FROM THE MIDDLE GULF COAST NORTHWARD...TO
HOUSTON. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS FROM
BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR IN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN
HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER PARTS OF
THE WIND FLOW CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA...AND THEN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.

700 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
75W EASTWARD. BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS-BEYOND-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N72W 15N69W
11N66W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 72
HOURS OR SO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.04 IN CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N76W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 6N84W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF 700 MB
SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW...ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE SOUTHERN PART OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
23N67W TO 20N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE IN THE ADJACENT WATERS THAT ARE FROM PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N72W 15N69W
11N66W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 72
HOURS OR SO. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS
REACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA
ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO
AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH THAT
CUTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INITIALLY MOVES EASTWARD. HISPANIOLA
EVENTUALLY ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE A RIDGE THAT
EVENTUALLY BUILDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL ENCOMPASS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL OPEN
INTO A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL
BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF
BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND/OR TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE REST OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO
25N60W AND 20N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
30N75W TO 27N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W 24N65W
20N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
32N54W 20N61W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.15 IN BERMUDA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE
LINE FROM 32N54W 20N61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 26N18W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 20N23W...TO 19N31W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 19N31W TO 17N45W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N38W TO
6N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N13W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA...
THROUGH 19N14W IN MAURITANIA...TO 12N15W IN GUINEA-BISSAU.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N62W 24N65W 20N72W
SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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