[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
9 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
74W AND 78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE GOING TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE...AND
THEN RETURN TO GALE-FORCE ANOTHER 12 HOURS LATER...AT THE 30-
HOUR TIME DURING THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 9N15W TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N17W TO 3N30W 3N44W...AND TO 1N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 4N17W...
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
2N TO 4N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INTO MEXICO NEAR
20N101W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 26N96W. ONE PART OF A
STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER TO
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER PART OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1020 MB LOW CENTER TO 23N95W...AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 21N SOUTHWARD FROM 85W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 14N100W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...THROUGH 18N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH 22N78W
IN CUBA...AND THEN WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N78W BEYOND
28N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO
THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL ICAO PLATFORM
SITES...EXCEPT FOR THE FOLLOWING SITES...ICAO STATIONS KEHC AND
KMDJ ARE REPORTING FAIR SKIES. STATIONS KVAF AND KEIR ARE
REPORTING NO CLOUD CEILINGS AT THE MOMENT. STATIONS KVBS AND
KSPR ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. AREAS
OF RAIN AND FOG/VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING IN THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST

REPORTED FROM THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI SOUTHWARD.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREAS FROM BEAUMONT-PORT
ARTHUR IN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA...AND AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A CLEAR SKY IS BEING REPORTED IN THE KEY
WEST METROPOLITAN AREA...AFTER A LOW CLOUD CEILING OBSERVATION
FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN
HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER PARTS OF
THE WIND FLOW CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA...AND THEN ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.

700 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
75W EASTWARD. BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS-BEYOND-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N71W 14N68W
10N66W AT THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 72
HOURS OR SO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.04 IN CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N84W IN COSTA RICA TO 6N88W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF 700
MB SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW...ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE SOUTHERN PART OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
23N67W TO 20N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE IN THE ADJACENT WATERS THAT ARE FROM PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH THAT
CUTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INITIALLY MOVES EASTWARD. HISPANIOLA
EVENTUALLY ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE A RIDGE THAT
EVENTUALLY BUILDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL ENCOMPASS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST CYCLE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL OPEN
INTO A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL
BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF
BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND/OR TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE REST OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
25N60W AND 20N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO
30N76W TO 27N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W 24N65W
20N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.15 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 26N18W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 20N23W...TO 19N31W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 19N31W TO 17N45W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N38W TO
6N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N15W...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO SENEGAL...AND TO GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N14W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 30N62W 24N65W 20N72W
SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net