[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB LOW
OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W TO 20N95W. A PAIR
OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE NW
TO N WINDS. AS THE LOW MOVES N-NE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT
DECREASING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

NE TO E GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SEA HEIGHTS DURING THAT PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 10-13
FT. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 06N18W TO 02N30W TO 01N44W TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN
21W-26W...AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 29W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N103W. THE SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT N-NE
AND CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A 1022 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W INTO THE LOW
CENTER AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N96W.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW GULF PRIMARILY N
OF 25N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF N OF 20N W OF 86W. OTHERWISE...STRONG
SURFACE RIDGING IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE...MID-ATLC...AND OHIO
VALLEY STATES WITH A PORTION OF THIS RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING
PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. AS STATED ABOVE...THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
E-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY BE REINFORCED
WEDNESDAY MOVING EAST OF THE BASIN LATE THURSDAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE REINFORCING ENERGY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND RELATIVELY WEAK OVERALL TROUGHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IS LENDING ITSELF TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. TRADES ARE GENERALLY FRESH TO STRONG
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THESE TRADES TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND TROUGHING THAT EMERGES OFF THE SE CONUS AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM
THE WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRADES...OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N71W TO
28N62W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN THE ADJACENT NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS THIS TROUGHING DRIFTS
WESTWARD...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO SUNDAY AS A
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ALOFT. THE MAIN IMPACT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE INCREASING TRADES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
STRENGTHENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE VICINITY OF 34N69W.
THIS ENERGY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 39N60W TO
31N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
27N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE SE WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING
AND A BREAK WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA N-NE TO 28N62W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 68W-74W...
AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 60W-63W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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