[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS TO RESUME IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE TO E GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME ON THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W SAT NIGHT TO SUN
MORNING. SEA HEIGHTS DURING THAT PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 9 FEET
TO 13 FEET. GALE WINDS WILL RESUME AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N09W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N20W 01N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. BEING ANCHORED BY FOUR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO
THE GULF WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
28N97W TO 23N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN SUPPORTS NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25
KT INCREASING TO 30 KT ON THE NW GULF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN CONVERGING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N W OF
90W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY SUN MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH SUN EVENING...MOVING ACROSS THE NE BASIN MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN...INCREASING TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO
INCLUDE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE KEEPS THE BASIN CONVECTIVE FREE.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW
AND SE BASIN DUE TO PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS ON THE ISLAND AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

HISPANIOLA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS
MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
CEASE LATE TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SW N
ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT
TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N74W TO 24N80W. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N64W TO 18N70W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB
HIGH SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE TROUGH DRIFTS E-NE. A NEW
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC TUE MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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