[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING NE TO E
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH
SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 06N18W TO 04N30W TO
THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX SUPPORTS A 1018 MB SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 18N94W...AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TO THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N89W TO 29N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W
AND 95W. MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 86W. NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE W OF 95W. EAST TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
E OF 95W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NW GULF
MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. EAST TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE S COAST OF HAITI AT 18N73W TO 15N75W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER THE SW
PORTIONS OF HAITI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD WITH SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND...ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO JUST OFFSHORE THE FL
COAST NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 175 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 23N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. A 1038 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 36N29W AND IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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