[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING
GALE FORCE NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BACK TO GALE FORCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W
TO 06N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES THROUGH 04N20W TO 02N30W TO
02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N AND 07N
BETWEEN 12W AND 24W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 31W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US NEAR
33N86W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE...EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE N GULF...E
TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF...AND N TO NE
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE SW GULF. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVER THE BASIN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE HIGH WILL LIFT NE OF THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE N GULF FROM THE NW. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE W GULF WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE
BELIZE COAST NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE SUPPORTING
GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO 13N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE AS IS CONTINUES NW ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BRING AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW FROM 31N56W TO N CUBA NEAR 20N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 22N58W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N16W
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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