[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING
GALE FORCE NE TO E TRADEWINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE
FORCE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO GALE
FORCE AGAIN SAT MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 9N13W TO
03N20W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
00N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA NEAR 32N91W.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT
NE TO E WINDS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE THE
WESTERN GULF FROM THE COAST OF S TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N95W WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N60W TO 14N63W MOVING
W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND N OF PUERTO RICO. FURTHER S...MORE SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SHOWERS TO ALSO BE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT WITHIN
24 HOURS FOR FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
ADVECT TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N53W TO 27N60W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM
30N53W TO 24N58W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AT 22N74W. A LARGE 1045 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 40N16W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
31N45W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N45W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO DISSIPATE S
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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