[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO IS
PRODUCING N TO NW GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT S OF
21N W OF 94W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING
GALE FORCE NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BACK TO GALE FORCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
TO 07N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES THROUGH 04N23W TO 01N35W TO
01N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N AND 07N BETWEEN
12W AND 24W AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KT COVER THE N GULF...WITH E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
THE SE GULF. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COVER THE BASIN AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH.
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS
TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL LIFT NE OF THE
REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE W
GULF WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE BELIZE
COAST NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ARE SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N
IF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. E TO
NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING NE FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY BRING AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF MERGING
COLD FRONTS...EXTENDING SW FROM 31N61W WITH ONE FRONT EXTENDING
TO S FL NEAR 25N80W...AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO N
CUBA NEAR 21N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N57W TO 11N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. 1044 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 40N16W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE COLD FRONTS WILL FINISH MERGING
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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