[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N76W TO 30N81W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-
NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 77W.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 23N83W TO 24N97W. GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 26N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W...TO 5N17W AND 1N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 2S36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO
4N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
50W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N73W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND TO 25N85W IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N64W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N70W...23N80W AT THE COAST OF
CUBA...BRUSHING AGAINST NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
24N98W...CONTINUING NORTHWEST-WARD BEYOND NORTHERN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF
20N78W 16N84W...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 33N57W 27N66W 21N77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.04 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KCRH...KHHV...KVAF...
KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...
KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE
CLOUD CEILINGS TRANSITION FROM LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 17N65W...TO
JAMAICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES ARE...0.18 IN CURACAO...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 4N80W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 17N65W...TO
JAMAICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 700 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...WITH EARLIER RAIN...IS IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
SPAN HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CUBA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 32N TO 16N
IN NORTHERN SENEGAL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING
NEAR 18N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N54W 13N55W 9N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W
AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N36W TO 29N47W...TO 26N52W...TO
24N57W...TO 23N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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