[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

.06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 22N80W. N OF 29N W
OF 77W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

.06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT MOVED TO JUST SE OF GULF. N OF 26N
N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 8N13W...TO 8N14W 4N20W 2N22W...AND 1N28W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 4N22W TO 1N30W AND 2N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N84W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 17N65W...TO
JAMAICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES ARE...0.18 IN CURACAO...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 4N80W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 17N65W...TO
JAMAICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 700 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
COVERS PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
SPAN HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CUBA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 32N TO 17N.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. A CUT-OFF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 19N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
15N51W 11N52W 6N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N45W...TO 25N64W...TO
25N72W TO THE EAST OF BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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