[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N65W TO 23N80W. NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE
WINDS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 12 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE-FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTS NW TO N GALE WINDS FROM 22N TO
24N W OF 96W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TONIGHT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 04N08W
TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 0N30W TO 02N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 12W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH OVER NE
LOUISIANA CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
OFF THE BASIN THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE OVER THE BASIN BUT DRY
COLD AIR AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT HINDERS CONVECTION.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NE TO E AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND EXIT THE MID-ATLC COAST FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FREE OF CONVECTION. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 21N79W SW TO NORTHERN BELIZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL
PANAMA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH N OF SURINAME IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SAT MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR PROVIDE AN OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS...
ONE EXTENDING SW FROM 30N63W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N77W AND A
SECOND COLD FRONT FROM 30N68W TO EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER ATLC WATERS N OF
SURINAME FROM 15N52W TO 06N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH SE
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONTS WILL MERGE TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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