[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061703
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES TO 03N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
03N17W TO 01N30W TO 03N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 00N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF
AND ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W TO 22N90W TO
MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
GULF FROM N TO S ON WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG AND JUST N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND N COLOMBIA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE
FORCE WINDS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM THE GALE WARNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE NW CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N64W TO 27N72W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT AND 50 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER
EAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 27N26W SW TO
17N52W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 35W AND 52W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N27W TO 29N33W. NO NOTABLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. BY 36
HOURS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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