[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 15 FEET TO 20 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
78W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N81W TO
22N93W TO 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 48
HOURS...

THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO
23N81W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N72W TO 28N80W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES
THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
23W...TO 2N40W AND 2N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N30W 5N20W 5N10W 4N ALONG
THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...JUST TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA...TO 29N70W...TO 26N77W NEAR THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
NEAR 26N77W...AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. THE FRONT
CURVES INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...FROM A
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N97W...TO A 1034 MB
MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N98W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KHHV...KHQI...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...
KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...AND KIKT. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING FOR
THE MOMENT AT KVAF...KEMK...AND KGUL.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MIXED WITH SOME CLEARING
SKIES...ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SOME VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES/PATCHES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON KEY TO
KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W.

DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST PART
OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 62W AND 76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES
IS...0.17 IN CURACAO...AND 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N84W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIEST PART
OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 62W AND 76W. THIS AREA INCLUDES PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...LIGHT RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH AN
81W RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 24N34W...TO 22N40W...TO AN 17N48W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N53W...AND TO 10N58W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
27N14W 22N30W 20N40W 11N48W 6N55W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 27N25W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
28N53W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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