[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 18 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 26N82W TO 22N89W THEN
STATIONARY TO 21N92W TO 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-
NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET...
THE HIGHEST NEAR 19N95W...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF
95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N15W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO 2N28W...4N40W 4N46W...AND TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 36W AND
44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
THE ABACO ISLANDS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 22N90W TO 21N94W AND
TO 18N94W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...TO
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KBBF...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...
KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...AND KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO
NAPLES...AND AT MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES
IS...0.17 IN CURACAO...AND 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N79W AND
BEYOND 4N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 56W WESTWARD...IN THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF CUBA ALONG 80W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH AN
81W RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO
24N34W...TO 22N40W...TO AN 18N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 13N53W...AND TO 10N58W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
29N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N
TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
27N14W 22N30W 20N40W 11N48W 6N55W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031W MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N18W...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N29W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N38W...THROUGH 32N44W TO
29N59W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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