[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 13 TO 18 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND
A COLD FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 05N08W AND CONTINUES TO 03N11W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
03N11W TO 02N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 23W-
27W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 38W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MIAMI FLORIDA TO N OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N94W TO S MEXICO AT 18N94W. A GALE IS
OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
W OF TAMPA FLORIDA... AND OVER BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE W GULF S OF 24N AND W OF 94W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF...WITH CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE N GULF ADVECTING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS N
OF THE FRONT TO ALSO WEAKEN. FINALLY EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE
W GULF TO CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND N
COLOMBIA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE MOVING W QUICKLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W...OVER HISPANIOLA...S OF JAMAICA...AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXCEPT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO ADVECT TO N HONDURAS AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADEWINDS ARE
ADVECTING ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO MIAMI
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF FRONT. 20
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO NW OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N38W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N55W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 29N38W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net