[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 13 TO 19 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND
A COLD FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 04N06W AND CONTINUES TO 02N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT
POINT TO 02N26W TO 04N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18N94W TO 23N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT AND
CONTINUES TO 24N86W TO 27N82W AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 83W-98W. A
NORTHERLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE A GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SW GULF...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING AND BECOMING STATIONARY. CONVECTION IS
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN
GENERATING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE INHIBITING
STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THIS...SHALLOW MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
28N80W TO 35N75W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS
BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A LARGE 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N41W. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. WITH
THIS...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRODUCING
A BROAD AREA ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF 40W BETWEEN 05N-25N. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING
E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CONVECTION WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BECOMES STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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