[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 19 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND
A COLD FRONT S OF 21N W OF 95W. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES TO 04N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
04N13W TO 03N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
00N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N
AND 100 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 24N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
18N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
NW OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE GULF FROM 27N81W TO
25N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO S FL TO
JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND N COLOMBIA. THIS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. E TO NE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED FAST MOVING
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 75W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE
WINDS WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
36N44W. A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE N
BAHAMAS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 32N32W TO 28N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N22W TO
17N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS INCLUDING OVER
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHICH IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF CLOUD
COVER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
47W AND 53W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE
W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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