[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 19 FT. EXPECT
FOR THE WINDS TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 07N11W AND CONTINUES TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT
POINT TO 01N28W TO 04N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
00N-09N BETWEEN 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS S FROM CENTRAL U.S. KEEPING THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR WEATHER AND WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM 19N94W TO 22N94W
TO 25N81W. A NORTHERLY SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 23N AND W OF 93W WHERE A FRESH TO STRONG
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC EXTENDS NW
REACHING THE GULF...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE
INHIBITING STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND FOR THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE BASIN FROM THE NW WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST N OF
COLOMBIA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN REACHING THE W
ATLANTIC ALSO KEEPING THE AREA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND HENCE
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WINDS TO BEGIN
SUBSIDING INCLUDING THE AREA N OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE
WINDS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJANCENT WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT IS FROM 25N80W TO 30N65W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD
FRONT THAT CONTINUES N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A
1033 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N24W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER E OF 70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 18N48W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
S OF 20N AND E OF 51W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST BEHIND THIS FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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