[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 73W AND 79W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENDING NEAR 07N12W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N20W TO 07N27W TO
05N34W TO 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 00N-07N BETWEEN
21W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING A SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THIS...MOST OF THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR
WEATHER REGIME EXCEPT OVER THE W PORTION WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 22N AND W
OF 92W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR
31N94W. THE COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N94W TO 25N96W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 20N96W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BASIN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25
KT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 16N80W COVERING THE
WHOLE BASIN. WITH THIS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
AREA. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SW N ATLANTIC AND THE LOW PRESSURE S OF PANAMA SUPPORTS GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
AND FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

HISPANIOLA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING W ACROSS THE ISLAND.
SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
N ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF
THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 33N. TO THE E...A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 39N43W TO 31N49W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
N OF 29N BETWEEN 44W-50W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA E OF 40W SUPPORTED BY A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 34N02W.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net