[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO
14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 21 FT. THE
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N15W TO 10N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 03N30W TO 02N42W TO 0S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 0N-07N BETWEEN 13W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN. A
1008 MB LOW IS OVER NW LOUISIANA FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N94W TO 19N96W. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN ADVECTS SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
WESTERN BASIN TO SUPPORT FOG N OF 26N W OF 91W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDES A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 15N76W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT. THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE S OF
PANAMA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE BASIN AND ARE FORECAST TO
DOMINATE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND
AND ADJACENT WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRADES
CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 59W. A WEAK 1024 MB SURFACE LOW
IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF GRAND BAHAMA W OF 77W. SURFACE RIDGING
COVERS THE REMAINDER W ATLC W OF 60W BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N69W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 15N. THE RIDGE ON THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE
ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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