[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 12 TO 20 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 09N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 05N30W TO 0N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-07N E OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. AND A BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND THE
CARIBBEAN DOMINATES ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS
NEAR 28N95W FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 24N95W
TO 20N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN
ADVECTS SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN
BASIN TO SUPPORT FOG N OF 26N W OF 89W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDES A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KT
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 16N79W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT. THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF RIDGING ALOFT AND
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT
POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 53W. A WEAK 1024 MB SURFACE LOW
IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO 30N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N W OF 71W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1029 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N69W. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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