[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 240 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUN MORNING WHILE THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 5N9W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N28W TO 2N41W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN
12W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W
ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AT 02/2100 UTC THERE IS A
1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N96W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING S ALONG 24N95W TO 20N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO N OF
VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW N TO ALONG THE N
GULF COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON TEXAS TO MOBILE BAY ALABAMA TO
29N85W IN THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PATCHY FOG OR HAZE
BEING REPORTED ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND TEXAS AND MEXICO.
THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW S OF THE WARM FRONT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 89W-91W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA. THE LOW/FRONTS WILL
MOVE NW AND INLAND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY SAT REACHING FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUN THEN FROM TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 14N81W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND E CARIBBEAN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SW CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 240 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH MON NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE
THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA TO BEYOND 32N70W. A WEAK 1023 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
TO 31N79W AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA JUST
S OF DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N59W TO 26N69W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND E OF THE LOW/FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. THE EASTERN MOST FRONT WILL
DRIFT N OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS W ALONG
30N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE ON SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA
TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net