[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE EVENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE 18-HOUR WIND
FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY TO 45 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 13 FEET TO 22 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N9W AND
EXTENDS TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO
TO 1N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 7N
BETWEEN 17W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO NEAR 29N90W AND THEN SE TO 26N85W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS. N TO NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
ARE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT. E TO SE WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT ARE SE OF BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WARM FRONT.
E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE N GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED AND FAST
MOVING WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...20 KT
TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. ELSEWHERE...EAST TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE N
OF 15N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN..AND 20 KT ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE BASIN OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IN TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING E TO W
ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
ISLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
27N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMALLY A STATIONARY
FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO 26N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1025 MB
LOW IS NEAR 31N59W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW TO NEAR 28N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SPAIN EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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