[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE
EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST YEAR. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
THE 24-HOUR WIND FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 30 TO 40
KNOT WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TO 45 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 13 FEET TO
22 FEET IN A GENERAL SENSE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 5N12W AND
5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N20W 4N22W 3N33W...AND
1N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BEYOND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CROSSES CUBA...AND IT CONTINUES
BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 82W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE NORTH OF
23N84W 25N90W 21N97W.

A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
31N80W AND 29N80W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N80W...ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W...TO
28N90W...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N94W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 20N97W AT THE MEXICO COAST...AND NORTHWESTWARD IN
MEXICO TO 29N105W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED MANY OF THE ICAO
PLATFORM SITES. THE FOLLOWING SITES HAVE BEEN REPORTING
TEMPORARILY CLEARING SKIES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KGRY...
AND KEIR. ICAO STATIONS KEHC AND KATP HAVE BEEN REPORTING FAIR
SKIES FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO PERRY FLORIDA PANHANDLE BORDER. PATCHES OF
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...AND RAIN...ARE BEING
REPORTED IN TEXAS...AND IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES
OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO FORT
MYERS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ALSO COVERS NAPLES FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BEYOND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.04
IN CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N79W AND
BEYOND 4N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND 700
MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BEYOND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
AN 80W RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N70W IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N21W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N27W 14N44W...TO 10N57W...
CONTINUING INTO NORTHERN GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN
15W IN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
STILL FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N16W 17N30W
14N40W 7N58W.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N54W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N54W TO 29N60W
26N70W AND 26N74W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
29N64W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES FOR BERMUDA IS 0.06.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND
53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 20N TO 30N FROM 50W
WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 30N42W 24N60W...
TO 18N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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