[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W
AND 77W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 21 FEET IN A
GENERAL SENSE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO
5N15W AND 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 5N23W 5N33W
4N41W AND 1N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 4W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BEYOND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CROSSES CUBA...AND IT CONTINUES
BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 71W WESTWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 90W EASTWARD
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND
96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N86W...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N96W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO 23N94W...20N97W AT THE MEXICO COAST...AND
NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO TO 29N104W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
31N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO 24N82W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED MANY OF THE ICAO
PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KGRY...
AND KATP WITH TEMPORARILY CLEARING SKIES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. ICAO STATION KEHC HAS BEEN REPORTING FAIR SKIES
FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE BORDER. PATCHES
OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...AND RAIN...ARE
BEING REPORTED MOSTLY IN TEXAS...BUT ALSO IN LOUISIANA. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA TO
MARIANNA TO PANAMA CITY...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST.
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BEYOND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.04
IN CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N79W AND
5N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND 700
MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BEYOND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
AN 80W RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF CUBA...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 25N70W IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N19W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N29W 15N44W...TO A 12N51W
WEAK CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING INTO
NORTHERN GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 14W AND 21W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N16W 15N40W 7N58W.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N47W TO 29N57W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N57W TO 27N68W AND
25N75W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N62W 29N68W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES FOR BERMUDA IS 0.06. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
FROM 20N TO 30N FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 30N43W 25N60W AND
23N69W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24W/25W FROM 20N TO 29N. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net