[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 73W-77W. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT WHILE THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W 5N15W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W 4N37W TO 2N45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE W ATLC AND OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. AT 01/2100 UTC THERE IS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N97W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 25N94W TO 22N95W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N96W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE
ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W WHERE IT BEGINS TO MEANDER AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NEAR PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PATCHY FOG OR HAZE BEING
REPORTED ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT AND W OF THE COLD FRONT TO
INLAND TEXAS AND MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF
NEAR 24N82W ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES AND CONTINUING INTO THE FAR W ATLC.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
AXIS OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SE
CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
OVER ARKANSAS JUST SE OF LITTLE ROCK AND A SECOND 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW/FRONTS WILL MOVE NW
TONIGHT AND INLAND ON FRI. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST ON SAT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM PANAMA N ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE
THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF
DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR NAPLES AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A
REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W AND
EXTENDS TO 29N57W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO 27N66W THEN
IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT E OF 58W. A SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
BERMUDA TO 31N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONTS N OF 30N AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONTS ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL AND A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N23W TO 20N23W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERN FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ON FRI. THE FLORIDA SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA BY FRI NIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SE TO A POSITION FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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