[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING 13 TO
18 FT AT TIMES BY FRIDAY AND 14 TO 21 FT ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 5N8W AND
EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO
TO 2N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
16W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 22W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO 22N96W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N OF THE LOW TO NEAR 28N96W AND THEN E
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N89W TO 29N85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS AND LOW. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
22N95W TO 18N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE GULF SE OF THE FRONTS. N
TO NE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 90W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS
THE LOW DRIFTS N. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N GULF WILL
TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT N ACROSS THE N GULF COAST.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AND NEAR
THE LOW...AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE THAT IS
INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE TRADE WINDS BECOME STRONGER WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT WEST OF 67W AND EAST OF 81W.
WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST N OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. TRADE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF WEAK SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE AFFECTING JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...AND OFFSHORE WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IN TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MOVING E TO W
ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
ISLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 27N65W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO S FL NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...INCLUDING
THE N BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...1037 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE EXCEPTION IS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N22W TO 20N21W. E TO SE WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NE WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR FL AND THE BAHAMAS TRANSITIONS TO A WARM
FRONT AND MOVES N OFF THE N FL COAST BY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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