[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73.5W
AND 77W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THE SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 14 FEET TO 20 FEET
EVENTUALLY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 7N17W
AND 5N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N23W TO 4N30W AND 1N41W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N80W AT THE COAST OF SOUTH-
EASTERN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
23N95W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO A DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL
1023 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N97W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES FROM THE 1023 MB LOW CENTER TO 27N96W. A COLD
FRONT...THAT IS PART OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS EVENT FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS...IS ALONG 23N96W 21N90W...INTO MEXICO NEAR 24N101W...
CURVING TO 28N103W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N103W TO
29N106W AND 31N108W IN NORTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO 22N98W IN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. THE
FORECAST IS FOR THE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...VIRTUALLY ALL THE ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR KGRY AND
WITH TEMPORARILY CLEARING SKIES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND KEHC WITH FAIR SKIES FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS
DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THEN PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL SECTIONS FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND FROM
BROOKSVILLE SOUTHWARD TO NAPLES. CLEARING SKIES ARE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO THE
MONA PASSAGE. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.07 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W BEYOND
5N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND 700 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW
ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO THE
MONA PASSAGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 28N72W IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N26W AND 20N38W... TO
A 15N48W CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...AND
ELSEWHERE 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N60W 28N65W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 28N65W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND TO FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W...EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES FOR BERMUDA IS 0.04.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N57W BEYOND 33N49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W
WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N41W AND 24N57W... TO
THE MIDDLE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N60W 28N65W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND TO 25N80W...EASTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 14N TO 31N. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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