[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 16 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W
AND 78W...STARTING AT 01/0600 UTC. THE GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO
IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 5N24W 5N34W AND 1N47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...NEAR 27N80W...TO 25N90W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS
FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE FORECAST FOR 01/0600 UTC IS FOR GALE-FORCE
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT...VIRTUALLY ALL THE ICAO PLATFORM SITES...EXCEPT FOR KMDJ AND
KDLP WITH TEMPORARILY CLEARING SKIES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND KEHC WITH FAIR SKIES FOR SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS
DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD. THE CLOUD
CEILINGS BECOME MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES
NORTHWARD. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL
AREAS OF LOUISIANA. CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE TO
THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO NAPLES...AND IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO THE
MONA PASSAGE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 12N72W TO 15N75W TO
13N80W TO 9N80W...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.07
IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W BEYOND
5N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND 700 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW
ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
4N82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NORTHWESTWARD...ACROSS
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO THE
MONA PASSAGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROUGH.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA
ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
THE CURRENT RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A RIDGE. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 28N72W IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CANARY
ISLAND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N26W AND 20N38W... TO
A 15N48W CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N54W 29N62W TO 27N70W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N70W TO A 1020 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 27N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES FOR BERMUDA IS 0.04.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N59W 30N56W 33N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N38W...25N48W 25N57W...AND TO 24N67W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM THE 32N54W 29N62W 27N70W 27N80W FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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