[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENDING NEAR 08N13W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 08N20W TO 07N30W TO
05N40W TO 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N
TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT FROM LOUISIANA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 20N92W TO NEAR
22N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 26N. NW WINDS OF 15 KT ARE
NW OF THE FRONT. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
FL AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
RANGING FROM E TO SE AROUND 15 KT COVERS THE EASTERN GULF. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO THE FL
PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.
GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY OVER THE SW GULF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...TRADE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN...AND 20 TO
25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 74W.

HISPANIOLA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING W ACROSS THE ISLAND.
A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC S OF 31N.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING CONVECTION N OF 33N OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...WHILE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC S OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
N ON 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W TO THE S OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 40N40W TO 31N48W. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE CONUS COAST AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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