[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS
FORECAST TO END AT 1800 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON 1800 UTC.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
4N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S
MEXICO AT 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 20-30 KT
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO RACE TO THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE
ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW OVER N
FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
30N W OF 80W. A GALE IS EXPECTED SHORTLY ALONG THE COAST OF N
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 29N12W. 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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