[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT 1200 UTC.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRI AND END AGAIN AT
1200 UTC FRI. ONCE AGAIN...THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT
0600 UTC SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER N FLORIDA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO END ON 1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
3N BETWEEN 5W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W TO S
MEXICO AT 17N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N TO INCLUDE PORTION OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN W OF FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. 15-25 SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 22N88W WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF THE ISLAND MOVING W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE
FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 996 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 33N79W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
E OF FRONT. A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A
LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE AZORES AT 38N22W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N12W. 20-25 KT NE SURFACE
WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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