[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR. NEAR GALE
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE WITHIN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA...
CANARIAS...AND MADEIRA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AREA OF
THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
OF MEXICO LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FAR NW ATLC. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N16W 1N20W TO 00N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N34W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S THE EQUATOR E OF 14W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLIPPING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A
COMPLEX SYSTEM IS AT THE SURFACE AT 25/2100 UTC AND CONSISTS OF
A 1001 MB LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 24N92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 19N95W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NW ALONG THE THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW E ALONG 29N86W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W INTO THE W
ATLC. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE SAME
LOW...ONE N OVER MISSISSIPPI AND A SECOND E-NE OVER PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 28N E OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SEA FOG COVERS THE AREA
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE SE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES QUICKLY E-NE OF THE BASIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NW TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF
BY LATE THU NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E OF 83W. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 25/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N60W ALONG 29N65W TO 28N73W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N78W THEN CONTINUES NW AS A WARM
FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N82W WHERE IT CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 66W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THIS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
SAHARA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE
CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE NE
REACHING THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SE
SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU MORNING REACHING
FROM 32N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FROM 32N67W
TO W CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG 27N AND LIFTING
NORTHWARD SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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