[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED JUST BELOW MINIMAL GALE
FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
SLACKENED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...AND RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...AND YET
AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SW N ATLC...DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT N OF 27N E OF FLORIDA...SPREADING EASTWARD AS
THE LOW AND FRONT PROGRESS...DIMINISHING THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FAR E ATLC...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW AFRICAN COAST IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF MADIERA...AGADIR
...TARFAYA...AND CANARIAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST METEO FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W CURVING SW-W TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 24W AND
CONTINUING WESTWARD TO 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM S OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRES AT 1007 MB HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE-E FROM THE LOW TO 28N93W THEN SE TO 27N88W
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO JUST S OF TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA. A TROUGH OR DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 23N97W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO HELPING TO DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NE AND BY 24 HOURS WILL
ALREADY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING TO THE NE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE N OF THE WARM AND STATIONARY
FRONT...AS WELL AS IN THE SE GULF COASTAL WATERS NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS.

THE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW WILL
BE DRAGGED TO THE E-SE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N90W TO 22N94W BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W BY THU
MORNING...SLOWLY SLIDING SE OF THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW-N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS BY FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA...MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...AND ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
THE E. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
UNDER W-NW FLOW. E-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BY THU MORNING AND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THAT FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE CHANNEL THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE ISLAND.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS ANY FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N WITHIN 180-240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ATLC
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N30W TO THE SW-W NEAR 25N73W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN
ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHERE SEAS
ARE UP TO 8-11 FT. LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NE-E AND WILL END UP JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY THU MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WHICH IS DISCUSSED
MORE ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 04N52W. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AS
WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT CAYENNE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER
THE AREA AND INTERACTION WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND
5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS MOVING COMPLETELY INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


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