[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1500 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC TUE AND END
AGAIN AT 1500 UTC TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 0N23W
TO ON34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 36W-43W...AND FROM 2N-
6N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA AT
29N91W TO S TEXAS AT 27N97W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
N OF FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. PATCHY
SEA FOG IS ALSO OVER THE NE GULF S OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-74W TO
INCLUDE CENTRAL HISPANIOLA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW
AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N64W. ANOTHER 1037
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 41N36W.
MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N30W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N74W TO
S FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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