[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS
GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W
INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 08N14W TO 02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
20W...THEN RESUMES N OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 02N49W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF
BASIN NEAR 30N86W TO 28N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W. THE
FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG IT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
AND AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF COASTS. THIS COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE GAP BETWEEN TWO
RIDGES...A WEAKER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC STRETCHING
EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION...AND STRONGER RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A
STRONG 1045 MB CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED ACROSS IOWA. GIVEN THE
OVERALL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL LATE TODAY AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO TAMPICO MEXICO AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH
THE FORMED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVING E-NE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW
INTRODUCING A STRONGER ROUND OF N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN NW TO WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THESE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FILTER TO THE
SURFACE WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE OF A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TO GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS ARE PULSING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH PASSING
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TRADES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE NOSES SW ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS NOTED W OF 67W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED SOUTH OF BERMUDA FROM 28N66W TO 32N64W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR
40N33W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OFF THE SE CONUS...CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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