[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72.5W AND 76.5W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO
END AT 1500 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC TUE
AND END AGAIN AT 1500 UTC TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2S25W
TO ON36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 37W-44W...AND FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM
29N92W TO 28N97W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. PATCHY SEA FOG
IS ALSO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 94W S OF THE FRONT.
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 64W-70W TO
INCLUDE E HISPANIOLA MOVING W. MORE SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER E
CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N23W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO S
FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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