[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222318
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN MON NIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N17W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N
TO S THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE N GULF WHILE THE S GULF CONTINUES TO HAVE
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO DOMINATING THE GULF. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING THE GULF BASIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER ALABAMA TO SE
LOUISIANA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY S-SE OVERNIGHT THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO NE MEXICO BY LATE MON WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SCATTERED SHOWERS E
OF 67W. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE W
ATLC WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT WINDS TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE OFF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1042 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS
N/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-55W SUPPORTING A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N55W TO
27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 49W-53W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM W-SW OF THE AZORES. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM E ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT
REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT TUE AND LIFT N OF
THE AREA WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net