[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL PULSE BACK ABOVE GALE FORCE
MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 05N09W TO 02N17W TO 01N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N22W AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO
07N E OF 16W...FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W...FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 05N W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AND PROVIDES
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SW N ATLC
INTO THE SE GULF...MOIST AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
ENTER THE BASIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE BASIN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE
NW GULF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW GULF COAST
SUPPORTS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES N OF 25N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE SAME REGION W OF
93W...COINCIDING WITH GOES-13 IFR MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ELSEWHERE. A NEW COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL
SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...TRADES
OF 15 TO 20 KT PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
BASIN...INCREASING 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES FOR DETAILS. TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT FOR
MOST OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OFF THE WESTERN ISLAND
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM
30N55W SW TO 26N59W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. WITH NOT TOO
MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF
50W. A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 36N34W ANCHORS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC BASIN WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONT.
A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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