[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N E OF FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 23N70W. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE
FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE AREA S
OF 19N WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT AND SUN NIGHTS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N TO OVER
SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-42W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER THE E GULF AND
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE W GULF.AT 19/2100 UTC THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME S TIP OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO
26N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N92W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON. THIS COLD FRONT IS ADVECTING COLD AIR S
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR DOMINATE THE GULF MAINLY S OF 28N. THE UPPER TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS EXITING THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
LEAVING THE GULF BASIN WITH NE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO BRIDGE THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER SE
MISSOURI. THE E PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE AND INLAND
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP W OF THE RIDGE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE E GULF ON FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AT 19/2100 UTC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN ACROSS W JAMAICA ALONG 17N80W TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N84W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THAT ARE LIMITING SHOWERS TO
THE LOWER LEVELS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE OVERNIGHT AND WILL STALL FROM HISPANIOLA
TO SE NICARAGUA ON FRI THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT AND SUN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
COULD INCREASE FROM W TO E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FRI INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 63W SUPPORTING A
LEADING COLD FRONT THAT AT 19/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W
ALONG 22N70W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N68W ALONG 26N73W THEN
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE EXTREME TIP OF S FLORIDA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT N OF
23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THAT
COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE W OF THE LEADING
FRONT LEAVING THE RE-ENFORCING FRONT DRY. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH
ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SE THROUGH FRI BEFORE STALLING THEN DISSIPATING N OF HISPANIOLA
SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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