[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N E OF FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N62W TO 20N73W. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE
FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE AREA S
OF 19N WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
20N74W TO 13N85W. THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT AND SUN NIGHTS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
0N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN
07W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE TX COAST NEAR
29N95W TO 25N87W. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT IS OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE TX COAST. A 1030 MB AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA IS PRODUCING COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE NE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO COLD FRONTS EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE SOUTHERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO THE NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W.
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 18N83W TO THE N BELIZE
COAST NEAR 18N88W. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THIS FRONT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
OCCURRING E OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE
OCCURRING E OF 69W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND
TRANSITION TO STATIONARY FRONTS WHILE THEY DISSIPATE FROM SW TO
NE.

...HISPANIOLA...
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 75W SUPPORTS A LEADING
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W ALONG 26N67W THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N66W ALONG 26N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W
INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF
THE LEADING FRONT N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE LEADING FRONT S OF 26N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING E
OF THE LEADING FRONT N OF 29N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N34W
PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE FRONTS WILL MERGE AND
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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