[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 21N75W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE AT 0000 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC
SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 0N33W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 11W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 35W-
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR
35N91W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO S OF HOUSTON TEXAS
AT 29N95W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF CONVECTION. A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS IS N OF THE FRONT WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 93W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE GULF WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE E GULF...AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N75W TO E
HONDURAS AT 15N84W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM N OF
FRONT. 20-25 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO S NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W
TO E CUBA AT 21N75W. A GALE IS E OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 30N75W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W. THIS FRONT IS VOID OF CONVECTION. A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS N OF THIS FRONT WITH 20-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE LEADING ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N60W TO
E HISPANIOLA WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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