[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNINGS FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 30N W OF 75W BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 22N77W. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 1200 UTC N OF 29N WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO
22N77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
BELOW GALE FORCE BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC
SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N19W TO WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02S43W AT THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 13W-43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03S AND E
OF 5W TO THE W AFRICAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF BEHIND A STRONG
FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS ACROSS N
FL NEAR 29N83W TO LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT COVER THE GULF E OF 91W. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER
THE SW GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IS OVER THE NW GULF
NEARER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE SE
US ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN GULF ON
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN
GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
NW OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
50 NM SE OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE COLD
FRONT. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5 KT ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HONDURAS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH OR SHEAR LINE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND THIS MORNING IN MOIST TRADE WIND FLOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AS THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US...THE EASTERN
GULF...FL...AND THE W ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 32N67W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT...AND WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING E OF
THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF
25N. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE
US AND EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA NEAR 31N78W TO N FL NEAR 29N81W. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A
STRONG 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 36N30W
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES.
TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...THE TWO COLD
FRONTS WILL MERGE AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM 32N61W TO HISPANIOLA
WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND DEEP
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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